It is a curious thing, the fascination of the modern investor with names unknown to the common man, yet whose decisions can sway fortunes and alter the landscape of industry. James Anderson, a name perhaps unfamiliar to many in the American markets, possesses a history and an acumen that demands recognition. For over four decades, he graced the halls of Baillie Gifford, a venerable institution, a shepherd guiding the flock of the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust. And during his tenure, that flock prospered beyond the wildest imaginings of many – a growth of over 1,700 percent. Such results, one understands, are not the product of mere chance, but of diligent observation and a perhaps uncanny ability to perceive the nascent promise within nascent enterprises. He discerned the glimmer of greatness in Netflix, Amazon, Tesla, and, most recently, in the burgeoning giant that is Nvidia (NVDA). To disregard his insights is to ignore a guide who has consistently pointed the way towards prosperity.
We stand, it seems, at the dawn of a new era – the age of artificial intelligence. Like the early settlers gazing across a vast, unexplored continent, we sense an immense potential, but also a profound uncertainty. If the current trajectory holds, if this relentless march of progress continues, then the market capitalization of Nvidia, a company intimately tied to this burgeoning reality, could indeed swell to a staggering sum of fifty trillion dollars by the year 2035. Such a number, presented plainly, risks ridicule. Yet, a deeper consideration, a more contemplative examination of the forces at play, begins to reveal a certain… plausibility. And it is in this examination that we find ourselves drawn to the wisdom of Mr. Anderson.
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Подписаться сейчас!The Unfolding of Fortune
The story of Nvidia, like many great sagas, is one of unexpected fortune, born from the confluence of circumstance and ingenuity. The advent of generative AI in late 2022 acted as a catalyst, unleashing a surge of capital and attention. From a market capitalization of $416 billion, the company ascended to a breathtaking $4.16 trillion – a testament to the transformative power of technology and the insatiable human desire for efficiency. At the heart of this ascent lies the graphics processing unit, or GPU, which has steadily risen to become the cornerstone of AI processing, the very engine of this digital revolution. It is a curious thing, this power – a testament to human intellect, and yet, also a source of potential anxieties concerning the future role of human labor.
The company’s financial reports paint a picture of astonishing growth. After a period of exuberant expansion, a gentle slowing was perhaps inevitable, but the current figures remain astonishing. The fiscal 2026 first quarter, concluding on April 27th, saw revenue surge by 69% year-over-year to a record $44.1 billion, while adjusted earnings per share climbed by 31% to $0.81. To provide some perspective, this single quarter’s revenue of $44 billion surpasses the entirety of fiscal 2023’s output for the company. It is a progression that defies simple calculation, a surge fueled by ambition and ingenuity.
Consider the broader context: PricewaterhouseCoopers, a venerable institution in the realm of accounting, predicts that artificial intelligence could add a staggering $15.7 trillion to the global economy by 2030. And they, with their characteristic prudence, caution that «AI is still at a very early stage.» To capture even a modest portion of this immense opportunity would be a boon for Nvidia, propelling its sales and profits to unprecedented heights. But to chase such a colossal sum requires not only ingenuity, but a certain… serenity in the face of the inevitable challenges.
Mr. Anderson, employing a rigorous and unflappable calculation, estimates that the market for data centers—the crucibles of modern AI processing—is expanding at a rate of approximately 60% annually. Should this pace persist over the coming decade, and should Nvidia maintain its current margins – a feat demanding constant vigilance and innovation – then we could foresee earnings per share reaching $1,350, with free cash flow approaching $1,000 per share. Such figures, were they to materialize, would suggest a stock price in the vicinity of $20,000, yielding a market capitalization of approximately $49 trillion. It is a vision of immense wealth, and yet, one cannot help but wonder at the human cost that such progress might entail.
The Foundations of Enduring Strength
Examining the history of Mr. Anderson’s most profitable investments offers valuable insight. Amazon’s stock has multiplied by a factor of 227,600 since its initial public offering. Netflix and Tesla have followed suit, experiencing surges of 105,000% and 20,020%, respectively. However, to draw direct comparisons between these ventures and Nvidia is to commit a grievous error. These past triumphs did not begin in positions of entrenched dominance; they had to forge their paths, weathering storms and overcoming obstacles.
Nvidia, however, arrives at this moment of potential triumph already possessing formidable advantages. It is a profitable enterprise, to be sure, but more importantly, it holds a position of unparalleled leadership in the data center GPU space, commanding a staggering 92% market share, according to the insights of IoT Analytics. Yet, beyond market dominance, there exist more subtle virtues: a relentless pursuit of progress, an intricate interplay of hardware and software, and a culture of leadership guided by a clear and unwavering vision. «These,» Mr. Anderson observed with a certain quiet satisfaction, «are precisely the qualities we seek.»
The Shadows of Uncertainty
Let us not succumb to facile optimism. Even if the stars align perfectly, a myriad of potential pitfalls could obstruct Nvidia’s ascent to a $50 trillion valuation. The widespread adoption of artificial intelligence is not guaranteed; it might prove to be a fleeting phenomenon. A competitor might emerge, bearing a superior solution for managing AI models. Nvidia might falter in its efforts to maintain its technological edge. A sudden and unforeseen event—a «black swan,» as some call them—could disrupt the carefully laid plans of even the most astute strategists. Tariffs, trade wars, and the capricious whims of global markets could all conspire to impede progress, fostering inflation and triggering economic recession.
One cannot, with any semblance of intellectual honesty, ignore the inherent fragility of human endeavors. The world is a realm of perpetual uncertainty, and any number of unforeseen developments could derail Nvidia’s ambitious journey.
The True Measure of Progress
Mr. Anderson, ever the cautious observer, was quick to temper his calculations, stressing that his projection was «not a prediction, but a possibility—contingent upon the beneficial application of artificial intelligence for the betterment of humankind and the preservation of Nvidia’s leadership position.» He further suggested that the likelihood of this outcome, while not negligible, remains a slender prospect, perhaps residing somewhere between 10% and 15%.
Yet, even in the face of such tempered expectations, it is worthwhile to step back and contemplate the larger picture. «It is the protracted and arduous evolution of GPU utilization within the realm of AI—and beyond—from initial excitement, through periods of inevitable doubt, to a transformative reshaping of industries that holds the true significance for us,» Mr. Anderson proclaimed with quiet conviction.
At present, Nvidia’s stock trades at a relatively modest 29 times its expected earnings for the coming year – a bargain, one might argue, considering the magnitude of the opportunity that lies before it. The question, therefore, is not whether Nvidia can ultimately reach that lofty $50 trillion valuation, but whether the company will continue to demonstrate its remarkable capacity for innovation, to discover new applications for its technology, and to capitalize on these formidable forces at play. And given its demonstrated history, I am inclined to believe that the answer, with a certain degree of measured confidence, is a resounding «yes.»
Thus, Nvidia stock remains, for me, a purchase worthy of serious consideration. 🧐
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2025-07-22 10:33